Fixed Income Outlook 4Q 2023: Turning Cautious (2024)

Risk Consideration

Investments in fixed income securities are subject to the risks associated with debt securities generally, including credit, liquidity, interest rate, prepayment and extension risk. Bond prices fluctuate inversely to changes in interest rates. Therefore, a general rise in interest rates can result in the decline in the bond’s price.  The value of securities with variable and floating interest rates are generally less sensitive to interest rate changes than securities with fixed interest rates. Variable and floating rate securities may decline in value if interest rates do not move as expected. Conversely, variable and floating rate securities will not generally rise in value if market interest rates decline. Credit risk is the risk that an issuer will default on payments of interest and principal. Credit risk is higher when investing in high yield bonds, also known as junk bonds. Prepayment risk is the risk that the issuer of a security may pay off principal more quickly than originally anticipated. Extension risk is the risk that the issuer of a security may pay off principal more slowly than originally anticipated. All fixed income investments may be worth less than their original cost upon redemption or maturity.

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This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. This material is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and makes no implied or express recommendations concerning the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.

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Economic and market forecasts presented herein reflect a series of assumptions and judgments as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts do not take into account the specific investment objectives, restrictions, tax and financial situation or other needs of any specific client. Actual data will vary and may not be reflected here. These forecasts are subject to high levels of uncertainty that may affect actual performance. Accordingly, these forecasts should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes. These forecasts are estimated, based on assumptions, and are subject to significant revision and may change materially as economic and market conditions change. Goldman Sachs has no obligation to provide updates or changes to these forecasts. Case studies and examples are for illustrative purposes only.

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Index Benchmarks

Indices are unmanaged. The figures for the index reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends, as applicable, but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Investors cannot invest directly in indices.

The indices referenced herein have been selected because they are well known, easily recognized by investors, and reflect those indices that the Investment Manager believes, in part based on industry practice, provide a suitable benchmark against which to evaluate the investment or broader market described herein.

Date of first use: October 10, 2023. 337643-OTU-1885248.

About Fixed Income Securities and Risk Considerations

Fixed income securities are subject to various risks, including credit, liquidity, interest rate, prepayment, and extension risk. Bond prices fluctuate inversely to changes in interest rates, so a general rise in interest rates can result in a decline in the bond’s price. Securities with variable and floating interest rates are generally less sensitive to interest rate changes than securities with fixed interest rates. However, they may decline in value if interest rates do not move as expected. Credit risk is higher when investing in high yield bonds, also known as junk bonds. Prepayment risk is the risk that the issuer of a security may pay off principal more quickly than originally anticipated, while extension risk is the risk that the issuer may pay off principal more slowly than originally anticipated. It's important to note that all fixed income investments may be worth less than their original cost upon redemption or maturity.

Investment Advice and Disclosures

It's important to note that the material provided is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. It is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations. The material also emphasizes the importance of consulting with financial advisors before buying or selling any securities.

Views and Opinions

The views and opinions expressed in the material are for informational purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. They are current as of the date of the document and may be subject to change. Economic and market forecasts presented in the material reflect a series of assumptions and judgments and are subject to change without notice. It's important to understand that actual data may vary and may not be reflected in the forecasts. Therefore, these forecasts should be viewed as representative of a broad range of possible outcomes.

Legal and Regulatory Considerations

Prospective investors are advised to inform themselves about any applicable legal requirements and taxation and exchange control regulations in the countries of their citizenship, residence, or domicile which might be relevant. Goldman Sachs does not provide legal, tax, or accounting advice, unless explicitly agreed between the client and Goldman Sachs. Any statement concerning U.S. tax matters is not intended or written to be used for the purpose of avoiding penalties imposed on the relevant taxpayer.

Index Benchmarks

It's important to note that indices are unmanaged and that the figures for the index reflect the reinvestment of all income or dividends, but do not reflect the deduction of any fees or expenses which would reduce returns. Therefore, investors cannot invest directly in indices.

Regional Considerations

The material also provides specific information for different regions, such as the United Kingdom, European Economic Area, Switzerland, Asia excluding Japan, Australia, Canada, Japan, Brazil, Colombia, Bahrain, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and South Africa, outlining the regulatory and legal considerations for each region.

This information provides a comprehensive overview of the considerations and risks associated with fixed income securities, as well as the important legal, regulatory, and regional considerations for potential investors.

Fixed Income Outlook 4Q 2023: Turning Cautious (2024)

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